Is there enough room in slow, downward decline of passwords to create large, successful passwordless authentication companies? You bet there is. Even the latest and greatest apps have to cave. When that habit gets in the way of user adoption, a passwordless-only approach becomes a lot less appealing. Passwords are a deeply engrained habit that's hard for people to kick. My unofficial mental scorecard has Medium, Slack, Notion, and Substack, to name a few.
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This population includes legacy business applications that are duct taped together and ready to explode at any moment - that is to say, switching out a foundational service like passwords is not on the table.Įven new, innovative products who tried killing the password from the start in favor of magic links and social auth have since gone back and added the option to create a password. Worse yet, there are too many applications in the world whose security model is built exclusively around passwords.
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Passwords have issues, but they mostly work, and people know how to use them. Inertia is the biggest competitor for every passwordless authentication company. They're still going to be around sixty years from now in some shape or form. Their staying power is proportional to their current age, even if we don't really want them around. Why? Passwords have a Lindy effect to them. Password usage will gradually decline in a long, slow curve over decades. Many people believe the transition is going to look like this, as if the new generation of passwordless authentication platforms will rapidly accelerate adoption: The journey to passwordless is a decades-long transition. That estimate isn't even saying passwords will be gone - just that another form of authentication will be used a majority of the time. My rough, probabilistic estimate is a 70% probability that passwords will no longer be the dominant form of authentication before the end of our careers (around 2040 for me).
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These functional and emotional problems with passwords are the driver behind all the hype around passwordless and large investments made in companies building the technology to make it happen.Īll the passwordless proponents (I'm one of them) are right - eventually passwords will go away. Passwords cause pain and agony, or even worse, a persistent, nagging, low-grade annoyance. Packy then captured how people really feel about passwords: They hurt user engagement, conversion, and revenue.Ĭompletely accurate. Actually, back up, first: passwords suck. In the article, investor Gaurav Ahuja concisely summarizes the case against passwords:įirst, the future should be passwordless. Packy McCormick did a nice takedown of passwords in his piece about Stytch. The Long, Slow March to Passwordless Authenticationįirst, we have to talk about passwords and the hype around passwordless authentication. Buckle up, we're about to go deep into the story about 1Password's strategy and opportunity going forward. I'm excited to share my new point of view with you. Through the process of researching and writing this article, I see 1Password in a completely different way. Even if you haven't read the book and aren't an MBA strategy nerd like me, the ideas from Blue Ocean Strategy are still a great way to understand a business like this. I've been a paying customer and loyal user for many years, but I hadn't stopped to think about how much I love the product or how big their opportunity truly is.ġPassword is a classic Blue Ocean Strategy case study. I didn't realize how excited I was about 1Password until I started researching and writing this deep dive. With the news and buzz about their latest round of funding, now is a good time to go deep into their business and explain what all this ruckus is about. Note: For simplicity, we'll use 1Password in reference to both the product and the company.Įverything about 1Password is fascinating.
AgileBits, the parent company who owns the 1Password product, just announced a $620 million round of funding in January 2022, the largest funding round ever for a Canadian company (move over, Shopify). That company is Shopify, now one of the foundational companies in e-commerce and valued at over $100 billion.ġPassword feels like the cybersecurity version of Shopify. Tell me if you've heard this story before: a little Canadian company builds a solid product that's profitable from day one, grows a large and passionate community of users, explodes onto the scene with large funding rounds, then dominates an industry.
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